著者
Takuma Watari and Benjamin McLellan
掲載誌
International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, 79, 19, 630-635, Link
要旨
Growing expectations are being placed on green hydrogen-based steel for decarbonising the global steel industry. However, the scale of the expected demand is dispersed across numerous case studies, resulting in a fragmented picture. This study examines 28 existing scenarios to provide a cohesive view of future global demand. In the short term, the demand for green hydrogen-based steel is expected to be limited, constituting 2% of current total steel production by 2030. However, a transformation phase is expected around 2040, marked by accelerated growth. By 2050, global demand is projected to reach 660 Mt (with an interquartile range of 368–1000 Mt), equivalent to 35% (19%–53%) of current total steel production. To meet such growing demand, green hydrogen supply and electrolyser capacity will need to increase to more than 1000 times current levels by 2050. These trends highlight both short-term limitations and long-term potential. Decarbonisation efforts will therefore require immediate emission reductions with already scalable options, while simultaneously building the enabling infrastructure for green hydrogen-based steelmaking to ensure long-term impacts.