世界的なエネルギー転換が誘発する関与物質総量

論文のポイント

  • 2050年までの世界的なエネルギー転換(発電部門と運輸部門)に伴う資源採掘量の変化を解析しました
  • 発電部門ではエネルギー転換によって石炭生産が激減し,採掘量は減少に進むことが示されました
  • 運輸部門では石油消費は減少するものの、金属資源(銅,ニッケル,リチウム,コバルト等)の採掘が著しく増加し、全体としての採掘量は増加するが明らかになりました
  • これらの結果は,エネルギー転換に伴う資源採掘の増加というトレードオフの可能性と共に、脱炭素化技術の導入と資源循環戦略を統合的に検討するの重要性を示唆しています

著者

Takuma Watari, Benjamin McLellan, Damien Giurco, Elsa Dominish, Eiji Yamasue and Keisuke Nansai

掲載誌

Resource Conservation and Recycling, 2019, 148, 91-103; Link

要旨

Global energy transitions could fundamentally change flows of both minerals and energy resources over time. It is, therefore, increasingly important to holistically and dynamically capture the impacts of large-scale energy transitions on resource flows including hidden flows such as mine waste, as well as direct flows. Here we de- monstrate a systematic model that can quantify resource flows of both minerals and energy resources under the energy transition by using stock-flow dynamics and the concept of Total Material Requirement (TMR). The proposed model was applied to the International Energy Agency’s scenarios up to 2050, targeting 15 electricity generation and 5 transport technologies. Results indicate that the global energy transition could increase TMR flows associated with mineral production by around 200–900% in the electricity sector and 350–700% in the transport sector respectively from 2015 to 2050, depending on the scenarios. Such a drastic increase in TMR flows is largely associated with an increased demand for copper, silver, nickel, lithium and cobalt, as well as steel. Our results highlight that the decarbonization of the electricity sector can reduce energy resource flows and support the hypothesis that the expansion of low-carbon technologies could reduce total resource flows expressed as TMR. In the transport sector, on the other hand, the dissemination of Electric Vehicles could cause a sharp increase in TMR flows associated with mineral production, which could offset a decrease in energy re- source flows. Findings in this study emphasize that a sustainable transition would be unachievable without designing resource cycles with a nexus approach.